Y2K Judgment
by
Michael Bray
"It is a very big problem, worldwide in scope and without historical
precedent (unless we count the Tower of Babel)." Gary North is talking
about a little old computer problem. He says, "How could a seemingly
trivial computer programming tradition of the 1950s bring down the West's
governments and banks? Yet it will."
He says this and much more on his web site at www.remnant.org. And this
site is not totally ignored by folks of stature. Internet links to it are
included, for example, by Steve Davis who is the Budget Manager of the
Year 2000 Project in the Montgomery County, Maryland. (The county web
site devoted specifically to the problem is found at
www.co.mo.md.us/Year2000. His private site can be found at
www.erols.com/steve451.) Mr. Davis expresses his concerns about a serious
national problem which has come to be known variously as Millennium Bug or
Y2K or Century Date Change problem. Mr. Davis is hopeful that the
situation does not turn out to be as awful as the "doom and gloomers" warn.
He wants people to pitch in and motivate their local governments to take
action to avert what may well become a disaster by virtue of the problem
itself or panic engendered by it. Mr. Davis has visited Mr. North's
discussion forum and offers, "Many seem to be anti-government and extremely
right-wing."
Perhaps Mr. Davis is extremely left-wing; we don't know. But he does
inquire after the predilections of those on North's discussion forum, and
he cites an e-mail reply from Mr. North himself: "I think graduated
income taxes are theft. Karl Marx saw them as a way to destroy capitalism.
I like capitalism. I'd like to see it survive. I think the present
welfare/warfare State is a tyranny. So, of course I want to see y2k bring
down the system, all over the world. I have hoped for this all of my adult
life."
Each man has his preferences. Each has his religion. One wants to
preserve our society; another wants to see it reconstructed.
Mr. North is a prolific writer. He is an economist by training who
writes regularly in matters of theology. Former CBS commentator, editor
of The Indianapolis News, and chairman of the American Conservative Union
M. Stanton Evans recently wrote a book, The Theme is Freedom (Regnery,
1994), about the Christian foundation of our laws and culture. He praises
"the polymathic Mr. North, whose books and articles I have relied on in
several places, and whose Journal of Christian Reconstruction is a
repository of valued information on many topics covered in this essay."
Whether or not Mr. North's predictions of "doom and gloom" are inspired by
the desire to see a fall of the present order so that a better one may
emerge, the possibility of chaos within a few years is quite real.
The Miami Herald (17 August) cites a report from the big Merrill Lynch
investment firm: "Call it what you will: a bug, a quirk, a challenge or a
crisis. But don't call it trivial. The Year 2000 computer problem is now
one of the most important issues facing business, governments, and other
institutions worldwide." Moreover, according to the Herald, "the firm's
top two officials suggested in a letter to clients, news media and
other interested parties that the seriousness of the matter has not sunk in
to many who will be effected. . . It is so serious that it demands the
attention of chief executives, senior public policy makers and heads of
other institutions around the world."
What is this all about? It is the "millennium bug" and the possibility
for such disaster has been sounded from many directions. The "bug" is
described by the Cincinnati Enquirer (23 Dec., 1996) as "a technical
problem businesses and governments around the world face because their
computers won't know what to think of the year 2000. . . Most mainframe
computers used by big business and government keep track of the year by the
last two digits only. So it's '96' instead of '1996.' The practice became
common in the 1960s and 1970s when computer storage space was expensive,
and programmers had no idea their work would still be in use by the turn
of the century. Come 2000, "00" won't make sense to most machines. Some
computers will think it's 1900. Others, on which time begins in 1980, will
think it's 1980."
Ed Yourdon is a programmer's programmer. The author of two dozen books
since 1967 has been primarily published by Prentice-Hall. In early 1998
his new book, Time Bomb 2000 will be sold by Prentice-Hall. (It can be
browsed chapter by chapter on the internet under www.yourdon.com) Ed
Yourdon is widely known by mainframe COBOL programmers as the lead
developer of the structured analysis/design methods of the 1970s. He is
also the editor of three software journals: American Programmer, Corporate
Internet Strategies, and Application Development Strategies which analyze
software technology trends and products in the United States and several
other countries around the world. He writes:
I'm becoming increasingly worried about the "ripple effect" problems that
will be difficult to anticipate, and almost impossible to avoid. It won't
be the end of civilization, but the year-2000 problem could indeed trigger
a depression on the scale of the Great Depression in the U.S. during the
1930s.
The fallout could indeed be devastating. As the Enquirer notes, "Some say
ignoring the problem could lead to the next Great Depression." But the
Enquirer also offered an optimistic "best-case scenario," hoping for "all
big companies and government agencies to get the computer programs altered
in time" and then suggested that something "in between" would be likely;
viz., "inconveniences" and "misunderstandings" such as late billing notices
and improper credit interest charges.
That was December. By the 2 June issue of Newsweek things were not
looking better. The cover read, "The Day the World Crashes: Can We Fix the
2000 Computer Bug Before it's Too Late?" The Gartner Group, a private,
technology-research company acknowledged for its expertise in year-2000
issues has supplied abundant analysis. Research director Matt Hotle said,
"It's staggering to start doing mind games on what percentage of companies
will go out of business. What is the impact to the economy of 1 percent
going out of business?" What if it is worse?" Y2K expert Capers Jones
predicts that more than 5 percent of all businesses will go bust. This
would throw hundreds of thousands of people into the unemployment lines -
applying for checks that may or may not come, depending on whether the
government has successfully solved its Y2K problem."
And what about the federal government? The Newsweek report quotes Senator
Fred Thompson:
"It's ironic that this administration that prides itself on
being so high tech is not really facing up to the potential disaster that
is down the road a little bit."
Sen. Stephen Horn held hearings last year
to see if the federal agencies were taking steps to - in Horn's words
"prevent a possible computer disaster." Horn "was flabbergasted at the
lack of preparedness."
Sally Katzen of OBM testified in July before Congress acknowledging that
most federal agencies are still only in the "assessment" stage. By
contrast, Washington state has committed $30 million to fix their problem
and is a leader among the states. Steve Kolodney, of the state's
Department of Information Services, says, "If they [the feds] don't get
their act together, it's likely the information they pass to us will enter
our system in a corrupt way, and if that's the case, we'll have to build
fire walls out there" (The Seattle Times, 11 Aug., 1997).
But even if the federal government were to miraculously catch up, there is
still the problem of interfacing with the states. In a letter dated July
28 to OMB from the chief technology officer for Pennsylvania, Larry Olson,
wrote, "Without a comprehensive national approach, independent state and
federal agency 'fixes' will likely be developed that could significantly
disrupt the delivery of essential public services throughout the nation."
The states are not only not coordinated, they are largely clueless.
West Virginia is one state which is at least facing the issue - and facing
the taxpayers with $30 million or more. "That's a budget buster," Delegate
Harold Michael said. "I don't know what to say when they are talking that
kind of money. It would make a very difficult budget to put together"
(Charleston Daily Mail, 14 August). "Less than three years before the start
of the third millennium, state officials face an unyielding deadline," the
paper reports.
And here is the crux of the problem in all government and business offices.
Whether it is stock holders, investors, or voters, the cost is too
imposing. The necessary fix has been deferred in hope of finding a cheap
fix (a "silver bullet") to the point that it will be impossible to
solve as the price grows exponentially (as the market value of scarce
programmers grows with the increasing demand) against the shrinking time
limits. As Delegate Michael put it: "Something is going to have to give.
It will be an election year. You're not going to get a majority for a tax
increase."
"Something is going to have to give." Indeed. And that thing is not
time. It marches relentlessly on.
A more sober warning was given by Sen. Robert Bennett of Utah during
testimony concerning actions taken to deal with Y2K. This Chairman of the
Senate Banking subcommittee on financial services and technology worried
that "Americans, worried ATMs will become useless on Jan. 1, take sizable
amounts out of bank accounts in December 1999, creating a run on the
nation's banks (AP, 12 August). Bennett also noted that "while 70 percent
of the nation's financial institutions have some year 2000 plan in place,
few if any have completed the work." Moreover, "most experts recognize
that with limited time and resources, the financial services industry will
not be able to achieve full (readiness) by the end of the century." Not
to worry, nevertheless, about those bank runs, said Federal Reserve Gov.
Edward Kelley, "We will have plenty of cash available to the system."
Hmm.
Such a computer blunder which packs such a potent punch seems incredible.
And so the title of the Herald article muses, "Why Didn't Geniuses See 2000
Coming?" Simple frugality, apparently. Just "tried to cut corners by
eliminating a couple of digits."
No doubt, in the great scheme of things, the picture is a bit more
profound. How long have we expected judgment to fall upon this land? How
long has the Lord of Hosts withheld His mighty hand from the just
punishment of such a nation as ours? A nation rich with food and clothing
and the very word of God which prefers the light of television; a nation
which has gorged itself with every kind of pleasure and leisure while it
countenances the slaughter of the innocents. Yes, the very yellow pages
of the telephone books advertise the places in every city where one can
conveniently drive to find relief from a burdensome, unwanted child.
And so, it seems the judgment comes now. And how ironic at the turn of
the century that such a judgment should fall. Time, even as counted by a
Godless people, is still oriented around the Lord of History. The Ruler
of nations, the Author of time, comes for judgment in the Year of Our Lord
2000. What a fine birthday celebration. He comes at this millennial mark
to answer all the millions of voices which have been crying from the
American soil, from American sewers. And His judgment will be an excellent
comment upon this Abortion President's administration.
Time is His. It is not '97 as we swift date writers would have it. It is
not even 1997. It is 1997 Anno Domini. It is the Year of our Lord 1997.
And he will not be mocked by a Godless people who scorn His Laws and
slaughter His children. He will not be ignored by a people who don't know
what time it is.
Consider our estate. We have sounded warnings and been fined, sued,
jailed, and threatened with the same. One of us sits on death row. Our
cries for the innocents and our pleas for justice have been rebuffed. The
Almighty for whose Truth we have spoken has been blasphemed by apostate
churches as well as pagan secularists.
Prepare for this Day. It is not a happy prospect; the rain falls on the
just as well as the unjust. And we don't look forward to the hardships.
But we do look for the good that comes through the cleansing. We hope for
repentance, recovery and reconstruction.
You have many duties: to warn the wicked; to show kindness to strangers;
to help the weak; and, of course, to proclaim the Gospel. You have a duty
to protect your own. You have a duty to the brethren. Your own are
threatened with the chaos now impending. Build close ties with those who
love the Lord and have ears to hear the warning. Make necessary
preparations.
A Little National News ...for the radical fringe
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